Disruptive conflict could emerge in the Baltics, in Azerbaijan, in Kashmir or even in Venezuela, but the United States, China and Russia only have so much focus. Less critical conflicts don’t receive as much attention, meaning that they can sometimes grow into serious confrontations before anyone quite notices what’s going on. Why should we expect World War III will be any different?” Great powers tend to devote diplomatic, military, and political resources to what they regard as the most serious conflicts on their plates. Army War College memorably phrased the problem, “the United States has wrongly predicted every conflict since the Korean War. All told, the situation in Korea remains much more dangerous than the most optimistic assessments would suggest.Īs a colonel at the U.S. Moreover, neither China nor Japan are fully on board with reconciliation between South Korea and a fully nuclear North Korea, although their reasons for skepticism are quite different. If Trump sours on Kim, if elements of the administration try to spoil any agreement, or if Kim sours on Trump, the relationship between Washington and Pyongyang could go sour very quickly. President Trump’s advisors are aware of and unhappy about this fundamental contradiction. The president has staked his prestige on an agreement with North Korea, yet by most serious accounts North Korea has not suspended, or even slowed, its production of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. And indeed, the prospects of an enduring peace are surely brighter now than at any time since the mid-1990s.Īnd yet serious pitfalls remain. It is undoubtedly correct that tensions on the Korean Peninsula have declined a great deal in the last year, as Kim Jong-un has demonstrated a degree of forbearance regarding nuclear and ballistic missile tests, and President Donald Trump has toned down his rhetoric about confronting North Korea.

Given the strategic importance of the region, any instability could lead to conflict between the United States, Russia or even China. Finally, the mercurial leader of Saudi Arabia has demonstrated time and again a proclivity for risk acceptance, even as whispers about the stability of the Kingdom grow louder. The tensions between Kurds, Turks, Syrians and Iraqis could break into open conflict at any time. Political turmoil in Iran could destabilize the region, either pushing Iran into aggressive behavior or making the Islamic Republic a tempting target for its enemies. The Saudi war on Yemen shows no signs of abating, and while the Syrian Civil War has dialed down to a low, slow burn, both the United States and Russia remain committed to their partners and proxies.īut like any slow burn, the conflict could reignite. Economic pressure on Iran continues to increase, as the United States take ever more aggressive steps to curtail trade. The perpetual political and military crisis in the Middle East has settled into an uneasy tedium. Given the continuing tensions between Russia and the United States, even a small shift could threaten the uneasy balance that has held for the last several years, potentially throwing Eastern Europe into chaos. The upcoming elections will probably not change the basic equation, but could introduce uncertainty. To be sure, Russia seems to lack any interest in disrupting the status quo ahead of the Ukrainian elections, while the Ukrainian government continues to lack the capacity to consequentially change facts on the ground. The declaration of martial law by the Ukrainian government suggested the possibility of unrest in Ukraine. Whether instigated by Russia or Ukraine (and both governments appear to have played some part), the interception reignited tensions in a crisis that has smoldered for the last couple of years. The world remembered Ukraine when an incident at the passage into the Sea of Azov resulted in shots fired, a ramming and the detention of two Ukrainian patrol vessels. Indeed, if China and the United States conclude that their trade relationship (which has provided the foundation of global economic growth for the last two decades) is at substantial risk, and similarly conclude that further conflict is inevitable, then either might decide to “ take off the gloves” in the SCS. However, as relations between the two countries deteriorate, one or the other might decide to escalate beyond dollars, words and legal filings. firms.Īs of yet the United States and China have not drawn a tight connection between the trade war and the ongoing disputes in the SCS. The United States and Canada recently escalated the conflict by arresting an executive of the Chinese technology firm Huawei, which led to counter-steps by China against Canadian citizens and U.S. For now, that conflict is playing out in exchanges of heated rhetoric, tariffs and various other trade sanctions. The South China Sea (SCS) has become wrapped into the growing trade clash between the United States and China.

U.n.declares world war 3